The reality in Cuba

Perpetual revolution, a freshly painted slogan on a factory in Cuba visted in 2015

My morning composure was spoilt this morning as I was obliged to listen to Ken Livingstone and some other old Trotkyist sympathiser heaping praise on Fidel Castro who died yesterday.

Castro was the worst sort of communist dictator who held his country back for 60 years.

We visited Cuba in 2015 and even as tourists it was impossible not to notice how poor and repressed the people of Cuba continue to be.

'Red Corner' in Cuban tobacco factory 2015.  The Party Member (seated) promotes propoganda and keeps an eye on the workers.

 I am not surpised that Cuban emigres in Miami were celebrating last night.  It's just a pity that the exploding cigar failed to ignite many years ago.

Urban decay in Havana 2015

Industrial decay. abandoned factory, inland 2015.

Russian reflections

Tsar Nicholas II 1900

 Time has now run out for anyone who, like me, would have liked to have caught the major exhibition marking the 150^th anniversary of the birth of the Russian artist, Valentin Serov (1865-1911) at the Tretyakov Gallery in Moscow.

The show finishes tomorrow and Russian newspapers have been reporting today that Muscovites have been queuing up in sub zero temperatures to see the show before it ends.

Serov, who combined the Russian realist tradition with elements of art nouveau, was one of the leading portraitists at the turn of the 20^th Century.  He also painted landscapes and scenes from Russian History, including a wonderful image of Peter the Great striding about in his unfinished city of St Petersburg (below).

How I would like to have gone to the exhibition!  However, it is much less easy to go to Russia these days.  Visa complications apart, relations with the UK have now plumbed further depths on account of yesterday’s shocking report about the death from polonium poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in London.  Consequently, an English traveller may not enjoy the customary warm welcome, even from ‘ordinary Russians’ at present.

Given Russia's problems these days, some people find it strange that I still maintain my enthusiasm for all things Russian.  It is important to realise however that the country is not the Government, and also to hope that, against the tide of history, things may one day change in this most fascinating of places.

Meanwhile, keep watching War and Peace!

Peter the Great, 1907. Tretyakov Gallery, Moscow.

Caine hits the spot on EU.

It was a great pleasure to hear Michael Caine on Radio 4 this week.  I have been a fan of his ever since watching him way back in the1960’s playing Harry Palmer in The Ipcress File. It seems that his acting career is still going strong with a new film, Youth, in which he is co-starring with Harvey Keitel, coming out at the end of January.

On the radio Caine made some typically PC-lite remarks about the lack of black actors in the Oscar nominations; (‘I think in the end you can’t vote for an actor just because he’s black’). Then, inevitably, he was asked about his views on our membership of the EU. (I think this will be a question for all interviewees for the foreseeable future).

Caine’s response really chimed with me because it closely reflects my own feelings.  He said that leaving the EU was ‘scary’ and he is right because the truth is that either option, in or out, entails a high degree of uncertainty.  However, as he continued to speak (and he seemed to be almost thinking aloud) it became clear that his preference was to leave.

It seems we will soon hear what David Cameron has managed to ‘negotiate’ with the Brussels bureaucracy, and I will make my final decision once details become clear.  However my gut feeling as things stand now is that we would be better off out than in.

The Year Ahead

Well I didn’t do too badly with my predictions for last year.

The most important event was the General Election in May. It was a relatively easy call to predict that James Cartlidge, our new Member of Parliament in South Suffolk, would win the seat, although when there is a new candidate success is not always a foregone conclusion.

I was also right to say that the appeal of UKIP to voters on the right would wane somewhat and to predict that they would disappoint in the election.  My forecast that the Conservatives would be the largest party, and would probably form the Government, was correct, but I did not predict the surprise overall majority of 12.    I was also too cautious when it came to the elections at Babergh.  I thought that the Conservatives would not quite manage to get an overall majority, but the coincidence of the local with the General Election brought out the Tory vote, and for the first time ever the District Council has one party in the driving seat.

As far as the County Council is concerned, I was right to predict that we would balance the budget for the current year.  It was also correct to say that educational standards in the County would continue to improve, albeit slowly.  Finally the first High Speed Broadband Contract, which has brought Broadband to over 80% of households in Suffolk, was, as I foretold, completed on time and within budget.

So turning to 2016, the most important political event is of course the United States Presidential Election, and my prediction is that Hilary Clinton will become the first woman President of the United States.  The Republicans will, like Labour in the UK, fail to find a moderate and electable candidate.  This transatlantic lesson may not be lost on some of the more moderate members of the Labour Party here in Britain, but nonetheless I suspect that Corbyn will be continuing to delight us this time next year.

In Suffolk we are relatively election free in 2016, apart from the poll for the Police and Crime Commissioner. I anticipate that Tim Passmore will win once again.   He has worked hard to maintain a high public profile during his first three year term, and certainly knows how to kick a political football.

I do not believe that the much discussed Referendum concerning our future in the EU will take place in 2016.  My best guess is that it will coincide with the County Council elections in 2017 (ensuring a high turn-out for us!).  This means that we face a year of endless campaigning by both sides, with a high level of scaremongering coming from those who wish to maintain the status quo.

At the County Council, we are unlikely to be able to balance the budget over the next two years without dipping into reserves.   I predict that despite this we will stick to our promise not to raise council tax during the four year term of the Council so there will be a zero increase for 2016/17.  However, I think that it would be wrong not to take advantage of the ability to charge a 2% Social Care Precept  to ensure that the old and vulnerable in our community are protected.  Educational standards will continue to improve and more people will be connected to high-speed broadband.  As we start to move into more remote areas however there will be some frustration at the speed of delivery of the service, and we will be focussing on alternative technology to get the job done.

Last year I predicted that the County Council would be involved in negotiating agreements with other public sector bodies both within and outside the county.  This proved to be correct as promises made to Scotland concentrated the mind of central government on the question of the devolution of powers to English authorities.  Much of the second half of last year was spent up in somewhat mysterious interaction between Suffolk County Council, central government, Norfolk County Council and other public bodies.   This activity will doubtless continue in 2016 and, with luck, some light will be generated from the heat.

So that’s it folks!  I’ll return to these predictions next year to see how wrong I was!

MEP Vicky Ford visits Newton Green

Vicky Ford

Yesterday the South Suffolk Conservative Women's Committee held its AGM at Newton Green Golf Club and the Guest Speaker was one of our Conservative MEP's. for the East of England, Vicky Ford.

As usual Vicky gave some fascinating insights into life in Brussels, explaining how difficult negotiations between different countries can be behind the scenes.  She illustrated for example the problems that arise when individual countries try to solve their domestic problems by introducing legislation in Brussels that would be better enacted locally.

Inevitably a number of lunch guests asked Vicky questions that expressed their disatisfaction with our membership of the EU.

It is clear that, like many Conservatives, Vicky sees her job as working within a system that she does not very much like.  She obviously believes that David Cameron's stance on Europe, moving towards a renegotiated position and then holding a referendum, is the right one. 

I think that, if possible,  she would prefer to see an 'In/Out' referendum before the next election, but this would simply not be tolerated by the Liberal Democrats.  In any event, it will take some time to untangle and redefine our relationship with the EU.  This is now an easier task, since members of the Eurozone have already moved closer together in the face of financial pressures, leaving other countries needing to clarify their position.

Vicky commented that she was disappointed at the absence of UKIP from many of the sessions of the European Parliament, and also from important committees.  Instead of standing up for Britain's interests like other UK MEP's, it seems that they would rather be propping up one of the many bars around the Grand Place!

All in all it was a very interesting session and one that encouraged me to think that the EU's influence in the UK may well be on the wane, which is encouraging.

How much austerity can a community take?

Riot police in Spain

Listening to the radio this morning, and hearing about the strikes against austerity that are taking place in parts of Europe today,  I was reminded about my time working with debt clients when an advisor at Citizens Advice.

Over 50 percent of our casework involved people with debt problems.  Our task was to try to help people to budget so that they could gradually clear their obligations.  At the same time we would contact their creditors to try to organise an affordable repayment scheme. This sometimes involved the company writing off part of the debt in order to receive at least some of the money owed.

It was generally accepted by experienced money advisors that a person might be able to stick to a regime of austerity for up to about 5 years. If however repayments needed to stretch beyond that period, then it was unlikely that the individual would be able to cope,  and that bankruptcy was a more realistic solution for them.

How different is the situation of a country full of individuals to that of one individual?  Places such as Greece and Portugal have signed up to austerity regimes lasting 20 to 30 years.  It is hard to believe that whole communities can be expected to manage that which we knew from experience at the CAB our debt clients could not.  How long will it be until Europe as a whole realises this and accepts the necessity of default?

Russian revival

Just off North Street!

There have been two reasons this week for me to wrap a cold towel round my head and try to brush up some of my fast fading Russian language skills.

First of all there has been the excitement following last week’s Duma elections.  Although demonstrations have been confined largely to Moscow, the message from the much abused Russian ‘little people’  to President Putin is that you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.  Of course it is the case that encouragement has been given by pro-democracy demonstrations in the Arab world.  However the current increase in political activism in Russia should not simply be seen as a copycat response.  Russians through history have, on the whole, been a docile bunch, rather preferring their leaders to be of the dictatorial, strong handed type.  It takes quite a lot to get them out on the streets. However it has become clear that the level of corruption, both political and economic, has reached such unprecedented levels that the conviction is growing that there can be no sort of future for the country while it persists. 

It is a startling fact that capital flight from Russia during 2011 was recently estimated at $80bn.

Coverage in the UK of the situation is understandably limited.  As the news has unfolded it has been great fun reading the Russian websites, although the arrest and imprisonment last week of one of the principal bloggers has shut down one useful source of information.  Unlike the broadcast media however the newspapers have at present at least a little more flexibility.  Most useful in fact has been the old communist rag ‘Pravda’, which, indeed these days appears to be reporting the truth implicit in its title.

The other reason for blowing the dust off the Russian dictionary can be found much closer to home.  On my way to W H Smith the other evening I was shocked to see the words ‘magazin’ written in Cyrillic script on a shop just off North Street.  Magazin in Russian means shop (a word of course imported from French in the eighteenth century).  On investigating further I find that another shop selling delicious Eastern European products has opened in Sudbury.  What is more the proprietor, Valya, comes from Lithuania where a good proportion of the population is Russian speaking.

Delicious and different products from Eastern Europe at a shop near you!

We were able to have a very nice conversation as I bought some delicious Polish sausage, some Russian preserved vegetables, and also some salmon roe from Siberia.  It is lucky that one of the first things you learn when starting a new language is how to go shopping.  Those words at least appear to have stuck!

Babergh officers keep their cool during international panic.

I’m sure that you can remember that in June last year local seed producer Thompson and Morgan was blamed by a French politician for the supply to the French market of sprouting seeds carrying the e coli bacteria.  In the end the company was found to be in no way to blame, the contaminated seeds having actually been produced in Egypt.  Sadly, despite this, related bad publicity cost the Ipswich firm a good deal of money in lost sales. 

The incident, which received wide press coverage, developed into an international panic as some 40 people in France and Germany died, and many others were hospitalised.

What has not been revealed until now was Babergh’s environmental officers’ key role in leading the investigation behind the scenes.  Yesterday, I received a fascinating briefing note from Malcolm Firth, Head of Natural and Built Environment, telling the whole story.

The ins and outs of the tale are too detailed to repeat here, but clearly Babergh Food and Safety officers played a key role in the investigation that followed the outbreak of e coli, and put in significant resources to identify food supply chains and to liaise with the various government agencies involved. This work has received considerable praise from the Food Standards Agency, and Thompson and Morgan has also commended the Babergh officers involved.

The full facts are only emerging now.  At the time Babergh did not want to attract media attention which could have compromised the investigation and also been time consuming and distracting at a time when they were more than fully occupied.

  

The adverse publicity suffered by Thompson and Morgan was very unfortunate, and it is important to know  not only that the investigation was greatly assisted by the company’s excellent record keeping, but also that no seed tested from the company was at the end of the day found to be contaminated.