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| Not foreseen in 2016! |
It was with some trepidation that I looked back at the ‘Year
Ahead’ post that I wrote on this day in 2016.
I was aware that I had been horribly wrong on two
counts. Firstly I was convinced that by
now the US would have its first female President elect. Secondly, I believed that David Cameron would
have had the sense to postpone the referendum on whether to leave the European
Community into 2017. Despite the fact
that I am now aware* that many of his advisors, including Linton Crosby,
counselled him against an early poll, he decided to put the question to the
People in June last year, and we all know the result. I was however correct to suggest that ‘Remainers’
would be guilty of scaremongering, although the extent of this continues to
amaze me,
My prediction that Jeremy Corbyn would still be delighting
us as Labour Leader at the year-end proved to be correct. So did the forecast that Tim Passmore would retain
his job as the Suffolk Police and Crime Commissioner following the election in
May.
Suggestions about happenings at the County Council were more
or less spot on; educational standards have continued to improve and the Better
Broadband contract has rolled out on time and on budget. However, as predicted, those in remote areas
are becoming increasingly frustrated about the lack of progress in their areas. The Council’s budget has continued to be
squeezed by cutbacks from Central Government resulting in the need to dip into the
council’s quite sparse reserves in 2017/18.
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| Something else not contemplated in 2016 |
Looking ahead, politics in the UK will continue to be
dominated by Brexit and attempts by Remainers (anti-democratic bad losers!) to
thwart the will of the People.
Inexplicably, the persistent failure of economic Armageddon to become a
reality will surprise the pessimists.
The Supreme Court is likely (on a majority decision) to insist on a
Parliamentary Vote before Section 50 can be triggered, but in the end both the
Commons and the Lords will comply and a General Election will therefore be
avoided.
European Politics could be dominated by four major elections
this year. Voting systems in the EU,
based on proportional representation, will not be helpful for populist parties
and therefore, although they are likely to make good progress in both France
and Germany, I do not believe that they will actually lead the field. This means that Mrs Merkell and the Right
Wing French Candidate, Francois Fillon, are likely to prevail. The situation in the Netherlands and, most
particularly Italy, are more difficult to call, and in Italy at least, if there
is in fact an election, I believe that
an upset could well be seen as more extreme parties from both Right and Left
combine to create an anti EU combination.
Disillusion with the EU will continue to grow among residents across
mainland Europe.
Sadly the outcome of the Russian election is not really worth forecasting. Putin, with or without his shirt, will win.
As far as Suffolk County Council is concerned, I believe that
the financial situation, which will look unpromising during the Budget setting
debate in Early February, will seem a little better later next year, despite a
continuing cash grab by Central Government.
Post the election in May it will be politically possibly to contemplate
announcing further cost saving measures, and the Conservatives, if they still
form the administration, will no longer be bound by a promise not to increase
council tax. Residents can anticipate a
continuation of the 2% social care levy (at least), plus, in early 2018, a hike
in the underlying council tax rate. This
is likely to result in quite a large increase overall. The state of the roads will continue to
irritate residents, and the council will continue to diminish in scope,
gradually losing control over many schools, possibly losing responsibility for
the Fire Service, contemplating the merger of Adult Care with the NHS, and also
losing a good deal of control over its Pension Fund assets. Any progress on a Suffolk Only Devolution
Deal, which I believe to be ultimately improbable, is likely to accelerate this
process.
This year the council is up for election, and my prediction
is that the Conservatives may improve their position somewhat at the expense of
UKIP, although a revival of the fortunes of the Liberal Democrats, as memory of
the Coalition Government fades, is likely to limit the number of additional seats
won. I predict a small majority of 4 or
5.
As far as my own year ahead is concerned, I am preparing for
change. I have decided not to stand once
again for the County Council, believing that my time will be much better spent
devoted to causes closer to my home in Sudbury.
Principal among these will be working with Gainsborough’s House to build
a landmark national museum in the Town, and also work with Compassion and as a
Governor at Great Waldingfield School.
And then there is the Town Council, of which I will be writing more in
another article.
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| Life taking a different track in 2017 |
*I learned this from a marvellous book that I am currently
reading: Total War, The Full Story of how
Brexit sank Britain’s Political Class, by Tim Shipman . Highly recommended!
