The Year Ahead 2015

I did not make too many predictions last year, so there was not too much to go wrong!

My prediction that UKIP would top the poll in the European elections proved to be correct.  I am pleased to say however that my wish that our exceptionally hard working Eastern area Conservative MEP’s, Geoffrey Van Orden and Vicky Ford, should be re-elected was granted.  In fact the Conservatives did better in the East of England than in other parts of the country. 

The other poll in 2014, the vote on Scottish independence, also turned

out as forecast.  I said that the result, a no vote, would be ‘quite close’, and in the event it was actually quite conclusively in favour of the Union.  However, events since that time have revealed that the story is clearly not finished yet.

This time last year in South Suffolk we were preoccupied with the deselection of Tim Yeo and the reselection of a new Parliamentary Candidate to fight the seat in May 2015.  On the blog last year I wrote the following:-

‘I am looking forward to supporting a candidate to become our MP, who regards Suffolk as his or her home; spends a good deal of time here in the constituency, working closely with District and County Councillors on the issues that matter to all residents; who does not have expensive and time consuming hobbies; who has a good attendance and voting record at the House of Commons; and who regards his or her parliamentary work as an end in itself, rather than a means to an end.’

From what I have seen so far of our candidate, James Cartlidge, he appears to be likely to fulfil almost all of the above requirements and I am sure that he will be successful in the election in May.

So, turning to 2015, the main question for anyone interested in the political scene is the outcome of the General Election.  As far as I can see most commentators, albeit with not much confidence, are predicting a hung parliament, with few being willing to hazard a guess as to how this might ultimately play out.  It could be that almost all the possible outcomes are so unpalatable that speculation becomes a disagreeable pursuit.

My belief is that, some of the UKippers will see the light between now and May, and faced with the unsavoury prospect of a Europhile Milliband led government supported by the Scottish Nationalists, they will swallow their bile and turn back to the Conservatives.  UKippers in Labour seats are likely to stand firm however, depriving Labour of crucial votes.   Thus while the Conservatives may not have an outright majority they will be the largest party.  I do not think that it is impossible that they will attempt to form a minority administration and, relying on continued improvement in the economy and the promise of a referendum on membership of the EU, engineer another election within months. 

At the County Council we will manage to balance the budget for 2015/16, and spend most of the rest of the year worrying about how we are going to repeat this without raising council tax over the following two years.  I think that the improvements in Education in Suffolk will continue, albeit frustratingly slowly, and accompanied by predictable howls of rage from some sectors of the teaching profession.  Residents will be surprised that High Speed Broadband penetration remains on track, and we will announce several cooperative initiatives with other parts of the Public Sector in Suffolk and beyond.

I will be standing down from Babergh District Council in May, and will watch their election, which coincides with the General Election, with interest.  Despite having some excellent prospective candidates, I fear that the much longed for Conservative majority will remain tantalisingly elusive, although I believe that the party will come very close.  A lot of good work has been done over the past four years at the District level.  The officer structures at Babergh and Mid Suffolk have been brought together, and a relatively strong financial position has been maintained.  However, the fact that these achievements are largely the work of Conservative leadership across the two councils has not been well communicated, and therefore is unlikely to be rewarded in the case of Babergh, which will remain with no overall political control yet again.