The Year Ahead

Well I didn’t do too badly with my predictions for last year.

The most important event was the General Election in May. It was a relatively easy call to predict that James Cartlidge, our new Member of Parliament in South Suffolk, would win the seat, although when there is a new candidate success is not always a foregone conclusion.

I was also right to say that the appeal of UKIP to voters on the right would wane somewhat and to predict that they would disappoint in the election.  My forecast that the Conservatives would be the largest party, and would probably form the Government, was correct, but I did not predict the surprise overall majority of 12.    I was also too cautious when it came to the elections at Babergh.  I thought that the Conservatives would not quite manage to get an overall majority, but the coincidence of the local with the General Election brought out the Tory vote, and for the first time ever the District Council has one party in the driving seat.

As far as the County Council is concerned, I was right to predict that we would balance the budget for the current year.  It was also correct to say that educational standards in the County would continue to improve, albeit slowly.  Finally the first High Speed Broadband Contract, which has brought Broadband to over 80% of households in Suffolk, was, as I foretold, completed on time and within budget.

So turning to 2016, the most important political event is of course the United States Presidential Election, and my prediction is that Hilary Clinton will become the first woman President of the United States.  The Republicans will, like Labour in the UK, fail to find a moderate and electable candidate.  This transatlantic lesson may not be lost on some of the more moderate members of the Labour Party here in Britain, but nonetheless I suspect that Corbyn will be continuing to delight us this time next year.

In Suffolk we are relatively election free in 2016, apart from the poll for the Police and Crime Commissioner. I anticipate that Tim Passmore will win once again.   He has worked hard to maintain a high public profile during his first three year term, and certainly knows how to kick a political football.

I do not believe that the much discussed Referendum concerning our future in the EU will take place in 2016.  My best guess is that it will coincide with the County Council elections in 2017 (ensuring a high turn-out for us!).  This means that we face a year of endless campaigning by both sides, with a high level of scaremongering coming from those who wish to maintain the status quo.

At the County Council, we are unlikely to be able to balance the budget over the next two years without dipping into reserves.   I predict that despite this we will stick to our promise not to raise council tax during the four year term of the Council so there will be a zero increase for 2016/17.  However, I think that it would be wrong not to take advantage of the ability to charge a 2% Social Care Precept  to ensure that the old and vulnerable in our community are protected.  Educational standards will continue to improve and more people will be connected to high-speed broadband.  As we start to move into more remote areas however there will be some frustration at the speed of delivery of the service, and we will be focussing on alternative technology to get the job done.

Last year I predicted that the County Council would be involved in negotiating agreements with other public sector bodies both within and outside the county.  This proved to be correct as promises made to Scotland concentrated the mind of central government on the question of the devolution of powers to English authorities.  Much of the second half of last year was spent up in somewhat mysterious interaction between Suffolk County Council, central government, Norfolk County Council and other public bodies.   This activity will doubtless continue in 2016 and, with luck, some light will be generated from the heat.

So that’s it folks!  I’ll return to these predictions next year to see how wrong I was!