The Year Ahead 2017

Not foreseen in 2016!

It was with some trepidation that I looked back at the ‘Year Ahead’ post that I wrote on this day in 2016.

I was aware that I had been horribly wrong on two counts.  Firstly I was convinced that by now the US would have its first female President elect.  Secondly, I believed that David Cameron would have had the sense to postpone the referendum on whether to leave the European Community into 2017.  Despite the fact that I am now aware* that many of his advisors, including Linton Crosby, counselled him against an early poll, he decided to put the question to the People in June last year, and we all know the result.  I was however correct to suggest that ‘Remainers’ would be guilty of scaremongering, although the extent of this continues to amaze me,

My prediction that Jeremy Corbyn would still be delighting us as Labour Leader at the year-end proved to be correct.  So did the forecast that Tim Passmore would retain his job as the Suffolk Police and Crime Commissioner following the election in May.  

Suggestions about happenings at the County Council were more or less spot on; educational standards have continued to improve and the Better Broadband contract has rolled out on time and on budget.  However, as predicted, those in remote areas are becoming increasingly frustrated about the lack of progress in their areas.  The Council’s budget has continued to be squeezed by cutbacks from Central Government resulting in the need to dip into the council’s quite sparse reserves in 2017/18.

Something else not contemplated in 2016

Looking ahead, politics in the UK will continue to be dominated by Brexit and attempts by Remainers (anti-democratic bad losers!) to thwart the will of the People.  Inexplicably, the persistent failure of economic Armageddon to become a reality will surprise the pessimists.   The Supreme Court is likely (on a majority decision) to insist on a Parliamentary Vote before Section 50 can be triggered, but in the end both the Commons and the Lords will comply and a General Election will therefore be avoided.

European Politics could be dominated by four major elections this year.    Voting systems in the EU, based on proportional representation, will not be helpful for populist parties and therefore, although they are likely to make good progress in both France and Germany, I do not believe that they will actually lead the field.  This means that Mrs Merkell and the Right Wing French Candidate, Francois Fillon, are likely to prevail.  The situation in the Netherlands and, most particularly Italy, are more difficult to call, and in Italy at least, if there is in fact an election,  I believe that an upset could well be seen as more extreme parties from both Right and Left combine to create an anti EU combination.  Disillusion with the EU will continue to grow among residents across mainland Europe.

Sadly the outcome of the Russian election is not really worth forecasting.  Putin, with or without his shirt, will win.

As far as Suffolk County Council is concerned, I believe that the financial situation, which will look unpromising during the Budget setting debate in Early February, will seem a little better later next year, despite a continuing cash grab by Central Government.  Post the election in May it will be politically possibly to contemplate announcing further cost saving measures, and the Conservatives, if they still form the administration, will no longer be bound by a promise not to increase council tax.   Residents can anticipate a continuation of the 2% social care levy (at least), plus, in early 2018, a hike in the underlying council tax rate.  This is likely to result in quite a large increase overall.  The state of the roads will continue to irritate residents, and the council will continue to diminish in scope, gradually losing control over many schools, possibly losing responsibility for the Fire Service, contemplating the merger of Adult Care with the NHS, and also losing a good deal of control over its Pension Fund assets.   Any progress on a Suffolk Only Devolution Deal, which I believe to be ultimately improbable, is likely to accelerate this process.

This year the council is up for election, and my prediction is that the Conservatives may improve their position somewhat at the expense of UKIP, although a revival of the fortunes of the Liberal Democrats, as memory of the Coalition Government fades, is likely to limit the number of additional seats won.  I predict a small majority of 4 or 5.

As far as my own year ahead is concerned, I am preparing for change.  I have decided not to stand once again for the County Council, believing that my time will be much better spent devoted to causes closer to my home in Sudbury.  Principal among these will be working with Gainsborough’s House to build a landmark national museum in the Town, and also work with Compassion and as a Governor at Great Waldingfield School.  And then there is the Town Council, of which I will be writing more in another article.

Life taking a different track in 2017

*I learned this from a marvellous book that I am currently reading: Total War, The Full Story of how Brexit sank Britain’s Political Class, by Tim Shipman .  Highly recommended!